The Climate Change Atlas can be used to examine the current distribution of tree and bird habitats in the eastern United States, and how these habitat distributions might change in response to different climate scenarios. The Atlas was created using a model called DISTRIB that uses a set of environmental predictor variables to describe where suitable species habitats are located. Model inputs, assumptions and results are all available via the online interface.
Inputs
Outputs
Restrictions and Limitations
In addition, the model predicts suitable habitat better for some species than for others. A reliability index is included for tree and bird species to reflect this. The reliability scores are based on the statistical techniques used to create the model, but basically take into account how good the predictor variables are at describing where species are located. Projections for species with low reliability scores should be interpreted with caution.
Finally, the model is only predicting where suitable species habitat may be in the future. It cannot predict where species themselves will be located, since that depends on factors such as species migrations, land use changes, biological factors (e.g. regeneration, dispersal, competition) and disturbances (e.g . fire, insects, pollution), all of which are difficult to quantify. Researchers are currently working on both quantitative and qualitative tools that help to account for some of these uncertainties.
To see a full list of strengths and limitations for the DISTRIB model used in the Atlas, please see this list.
Release Notes
Researchers at the USDA Forest Service Northern Research Station (NRS) first developed a statistical model in 1996 to assess potential changes in habitat for common tree species in the eastern United States. Since then, the model has gone through several improvements, leading to the development of the DISTRIB model which is the basis for the Climate Change Atlas. See the Atlas publications page for a list of documents related to the development and use of this model.